ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Drug overdose and firearm injury are two of the United States (US) most unrelenting public health crises, both of which have been compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic. Programs and policies typically focus on each epidemic, alone, which may produce less efficient interventions if overlap does exist. The objective is to examine whether drug overdose correlates with and is associated with firearm injury at the census tract level while controlling for neighborhood characteristics. METHODS: An ecological study of census tracts in Indianapolis, Indiana from 2018 to 2020. Population rates per 100,000 and census tracts with the highest overlap of overdose and firearm injury were identified based on spatial clusters. Bivariate association between census tract characteristic and drug overdose and firearm violence rate within spatial clusters. Zero-inflated negative binominal regression was used to estimate if the drug overdose activity is associated with higher future firearm injury. RESULTS: In high overdose-high firearm injury census tracts, rates of firearm injury and drug overdose are two times higher compared to city wide rates. Indicators of structural disadvantage and structural racism are higher in high overdose-high firearm injury census tracts compared to city-wide averages. Drug overdoses are associated with higher rates of firearm injury in the following year (IRR: 1.004, 95% CI 1.001, 1.007, p < 0.05), adjusting for census tract characteristics and spatial dependence. CONCLUSIONS: Drug overdose and firearm injury co-spatially concentrate within census tracts. Moreover, drug overdoses are associated with future firearm injury. Interventions to reduce firearm injuries and drug overdoses should be a co-response in high drug overdose-high firearm injury communities.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To examine victimisation rates, geographic patterns and neighbourhood characteristics associated with non-fatal firearm injury rates before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: City of Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, 1 January 2017-30 June 2021. PARTICIPANTS: Intentional non-fatal firearm injury victims from Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department records. The study included information on 2578 non-fatal firearm injury victims between ages 0 and 77 years. Of these victims, 82.5% were male and 77.4% were black. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of non-fatal firearm injuries per 100 000 population by victim age, race, sex and incident motive. Prepandemic and peripandemic non-fatal firearm injury rates. RESULTS: Non-fatal shooting rates increased 8.60%, from 57.0 per 100 000 person-years in prepandemic years to 65.6 per 100 000 person-years during the pandemic (p<0.001). Rates of female victims (15.2 vs 23.8 per 100,000; p<0.001) and older victims (91.3 vs 120.4 per 100,000; p<0.001) increased significantly during the pandemic compared with the prepandemic period. Neighbourhoods with higher levels of structural disadvantage (IRR: 1.157, 95% CI 1.012 to 1.324) and prepandemic firearm injury rates (IRR: 1.001, 95% CI 1.001 to 1.002) was positively associated with higher rates of non-fatal firearm injuries during the pandemic, adjusting for neighbourhood characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Non-fatal firearm injuries increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among female and older victims. Efforts are needed to expand and rethink current firearm prevention efforts that both address the diversification of victimisation and the larger societal trauma of firearm violence.